A lot has been written regarding this all-important plebiscite coming at the close oft he six year CPA interim period. Many analysts however look at the elections in light of the Referendum coming up in less than a year’s time. To them, the referendum is more important than the elections.

However, a keen observer will note that the Khartoum elite have more riding on the elections than the referendum. There is nothing much that they (Khartoum elites) can do to stop the impeding separation.  But they can and actually do plan to ‘manage’ the April elections.

Why? Because losing the elections has far-reaching consequences; like it leaves Omar Bashir vulnerable to the ICC arrest if (and this is a big if) he peacefully hands over power to the winner.

If ever there was a time to intervene in Sudan, it is in the next 3 months. (I use the word ‘intervene’ quite cautiously here, not to be misconstrued as having the same meaning as Collier in his Wars, Guns and Votes).  The international community must breath down the Khartoum’s neck, diplomatically of course.

This elections is going to be IT!

But let me indulge you for a moment: whom do you think will win the presidency of The Sudan?